Seaonality in Tanker Spot Freight Market

Economic Modelling 19 Ž2002. 747 782 Seasonality patterns in tank ship dim freight rate commercialises Manolis G. Kavussanos a,b,U , Amir H. Alizadeh-M b a incision of Accounting and Finance, Athens Uni¨ ersity of economics and Business, 76 Patission St, Athens, TK 104 34, Greece b section of Shipping, Trade and Finance, City Uni¨ ersity Business School, Frobisher Crescent, barbacan Centre, London EC2Y 8HB, UK real 20 April 2001 Abstract The aim of this paper is to analyse the universe of discourse and nature of seasonality Ždeterministic or stochastic . in tanker freight securities industrys and measure and comp ar it across sub-sectors and under(a) different grocery conditions Žexpansionary and contractionary. for the period January 1978 to December 1996. The existence of stochastic seasonality is jilted for whole freight series while results on deterministic seasonality aspect increases in evaluate in November and December and decre ases in rates from January to April. Seasonality is found to be varying across markets depending on vas size and market condition.

Seasonality comparisons under different market conditions, an surface investigated for the first clock season in the econometrics literature use Markov electrical switch models, reveal that seasonal rate movements are more pronounced when the market is acquire compared to smaller changes when the market is falling. This is well in line with the commencement and high walkover of supply expected in expansionary and contractionary periods of shipping markets. The results have implications for tactical shipping operations such as budget planning, time of dry-docking, vessel speed adjustments an! d repositioning. As expected, the out-of-sample forecasting performance of these Markov regimen Switching models is lacking somewhat, a result which is thought to be a consequence of having to predict states simultaneously with mean values. 2002 Elsevier cognition B.V. all rights reserved. JEL classifications: L91; L92; C22;...If you want to get a full essay, score it on our website: OrderEssay.net

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